U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Suspends Data Release, LME Copper Surged Sharply Last Night [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Futures: LME copper opened at $10,262.5/mt overnight, initially dipped to $10,256/mt, then the center of copper prices gradually moved upward, testing $10,450/mt, subsequently fluctuated considerably, and finally closed at $10,428.5/mt, a gain of 2.19%, with trading volume reaching 25,000 lots and open interest reaching 300,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2511 opened and touched a low of 82,400 yuan/mt overnight, fluctuated upward initially, touched a high of 83,820 yuan/mt, then fluctuated considerably and finally closed at 83,680 yuan/mt, a gain of 1.96%, with trading volume reaching 82,000 lots and open interest reaching 216,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On September 26, Japan's JX Advanced Metals announced an investment of approximately 7 billion yen (about $47 million) to enhance the pretreatment capacity of its metal and recycling business. In response to declining copper concentrate smelting profits, the company plans to advance its "Green Hybrid Smelting" initiative to reduce reliance on copper concentrates and increase the proportion of recycled raw materials. Against the backdrop of rising metal prices and intensifying global competition for recycled raw materials, securing stable raw material procurement has become a major challenge. The company aims to increase its pretreatment capacity, including kilns, by 50% in fiscal year 2027 to handle more materials requiring pretreatment, such as low-grade e-waste.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On September 29, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2510 contract were reported at a discount of 60 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a discount of 5 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 82,010-82,410 yuan/mt. In early morning trading, SHFE copper surged to 82,380 yuan/mt, then briefly fell to 82,030 yuan/mt, before continuing to rise and fluctuating between 82,280-82,440 yuan/mt. The inter-month price spread was basically flat, and the import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract quickly narrowed to within 700 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, the last trading day of September, trading activity at most enterprises is expected to decline, and the center of spot premiums/discounts for SHFE copper is expected to edge up slightly.

(2) Guangdong: On September 29, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 100 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 70 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a discount of 20 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 30 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 82,190 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 82,090 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, spot trades were moderate on the penultimate trading day before the holiday, spot premiums remained unchanged, and the focus is on the extent of inventory buildup after the holiday.

(3) Imported copper: On September 29, warrant prices were $48-58/mt, QP October, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $48-66/mt, QP October, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $28-36/mt, QP October, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in the first half of October.

(4) Secondary copper: On September 29 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 82,350 yuan/mt, down 240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums/discounts were -5 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Today, recycled copper raw materials prices were flat WoW. Guangdong bare bright copper prices were 74,700-74,900 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,771 yuan/mt, down 240 yuan/mt WoW. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,260 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, as copper prices fluctuated at highs and the National Day holiday approached, secondary copper rod producers were not in a hurry to sell secondary copper rod. As downstream end-use consumption enterprises maintained normal operation and production during the holiday, secondary copper rod enterprises preferred to wait for LME copper prices to rise during the holiday, which would drive up domestic copper processing product prices, before selling copper rod. Therefore, some secondary copper rod enterprises suspended quotations or order-taking during the day.

(5) Inventory: On September 26, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 500 mt to 143,900 mt; on September 29, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 954 mt to 25,603 mt.

Prices: On the macro front, affected by the US political stalemate, Senate Republicans were scheduled to vote on a bill to avoid a government shutdown on Tuesday, while Democrats had rejected a short-term spending bill. This move led to a weaker US dollar, supporting copper prices. Meanwhile, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that data releases, including the closely watched September non-farm payroll report, would be suspended during a government shutdown, further increasing uncertainty in the US market and benefiting copper prices. On the fundamentals, supply side, imported cargoes continued to arrive but domestic supply decreased. Demand side, purchase willingness was weak as the National Day holiday approached. Inventory side, as of Monday, September 29, SMM national mainstream copper inventories increased by 8,200 mt WoW to 148,300 mt. Overall, copper prices were expected to have limited upside today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]